Monday, January 29, 2018 / by Sean Zanganeh
I am Blogging on the east coast from Frostburg, Maryland.. None the less I always keep up with our San Diego News. This is some great positive news in the San Diego Markets. Although I never say we "know" when the "bottom" is, we find many ways to work to be ahead of the curve. News and statistics could and probably will be many months behind reality in regards to recovery, but I like this article and want to share.
Slight uptick could mean the market has hit bottom
"Further fueling hopes that the prolonged housing slump may be drawing to a close, a widely watched index of home prices yesterday reported its first gain in San Diego County in nearly three years.
The Case-Shiller Price Index, compiled by Standard & Poor's, increased 0.4 percent for the county from April to May, joining a nationwide positive trend among major metropolitan areas.
Prices rose in 13 of the 20 metro areas tracked by the index, and the overall 20-city home price index rose 0.5 percent from April, its first month-over-month increase in 34 months.
“I think it means something,” said Peter Dennehy, senior vice president at Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors in San Diego. “We do see a change here. We are talking about sales that took place a couple of months back, but it is a good sign of stabilization. The overall index, for the first time in a while, shows a positive. It's a modest positive, but it's a start.”
Marc Zimmerman, an agent with Encinitas-based Pineapplehut Inc., said many bargain hunters who've been waiting for the housing market to bottom out are returning to the market.
“I just sold a house in Olivenhain in the million-dollar range,” he said. “The buyers had been looking for at least a year. They felt that this was the time, that the prices had stabilized. This feels like the bottom.”
Rick Sharga, vice president of the RealtyTrac research firm, said that some overheated housing markets have overcorrected during the housing slump and that the Case-Shiller report could mark the beginning of a turnaround for the San Diego region.
The release of the surprisingly strong Case-Shiller index followed earlier reports that sales of existing homes nationally rose last month for the third consecutive time, while beleaguered home builders saw sales of new homes jump in June by the largest amount in eight years. Sales of newly built homes rose 11 percent in June over May's levels but still were 21.3 percent below June 2008, the Commerce Department reported.
In San Diego County, a recent report by MDA DataQuick showed that the median home price rose for the third consecutive month in June, hitting $314,250, the highest figure since October.
The local housing market began to slide after prices peaked in fall 2005. Since then, the county's median home price has dropped by 39 percent.
Some skeptics believe the market is merely pausing before it resumes falling. Even the most enthusiastic analysts say rising unemployment, another leap in foreclosures or a significant rise in interest rates could undermine a recovery.
Even if the San Diego housing market has hit bottom, there is no guarantee that prices will soon return to the dizzying highs of the mid-2000s.
For several months, banks have been delaying action on home foreclosures. Many analysts say there could be another surge in home-loan failures as banks begin to follow up on delinquent mortgages.
DataQuick reported 1,630 foreclosures in San Diego County for June, compared with 985 in May. It was the greatest monthly increase since December 2007.
“Hitting bottom and coming up from the bottom are two different things,” said Los Angeles economist Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics. “The problem is all of the foreclosures we have to go through. At some point, these homes are going to hit the market.”
The Case-Shiller index tracks sales of single-family homes, on a three-month rolling average, by comparing them to their previous selling prices, a methodology considered less volatile than median-home-price reports.
The index for 20 metropolitan areas surveyed was set at 100 in January 2000. New index numbers reflect changes from that point.
Standard & Poor's showed San Diego County's home price index at 145.06 in May, an increase of 0.63 from April, or a 0.4 percent monthly rise. Year over year, the index declined 18.5 percent, the smallest such drop since January 2008.
Nationwide, of the 13 regions that saw their index rise, the largest increases occurred in Cleveland, Dallas and Boston. But Case-Shiller's overall 20-city home price index of 139.84, while up 0.5 percent from April, was still 17.1 percent below May 2008.
Based on year-over-year results for May, the metro areas ranked at the bottom of the list were Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Miami. San Diego was in the middle, ranking ninth from the bottom."
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